Over the past few years, U.S. buyers have been asking the same question: aside from China, where else can we source from?
Vietnam, India, Thailand—these names have come up again and again. Some have even called them the "next China." In the eight years of tariff hikes, U.S. imports from China did drop by approximately $178 billion, while imports from Vietnam, Mexico, and India increased significantly.
It looks like a replacement is happening.
But if you think "just switch sourcing countries" will solve the problem, you could be in for a rude awakening. The reality is far more complex than surface-level data suggests—and for Chinese suppliers, the good news outweighs the bad.
First, the macro numbers. From 2017 to 2025, U.S. merchandise imports from China fell from approximately $505.6 billion to $327.5 billion—a drop of $178 billion. But over the same period, total U.S. imports from the world rose from $2.41 trillion to approximately $3.4 trillion.
The money didn't disappear—it just went to different suppliers.
Vietnam, India, and Mexico became the biggest winners. Take Vietnam: its exports to the U.S. surged from approximately $41.6 billion in 2017 to about $119.5 billion in 2024.
But here's the other half of the story. Over the same period, Vietnam's imports from China also rose from approximately $58.6 billion to about $144.2 billion.
See the pattern? Vietnam's exports to the U.S. skyrocketed—but so did its imports from China. What looks like "replacement" is often just the most natural dynamic in global value chains: China makes intermediate goods and core components; Vietnam does assembly and final processing.
This is essentially an extension of China's supply chain, not a replacement.
Vietnam is often seen as the "top replacement candidate" by many buyers. But looking at the 2026 landscape, this option is far less stable than it appears.
Take basa fish. In August 2026, the U.S. Department of Commerce issued a final anti-dumping ruling on Vietnam's basa fish industry, with sharply increased duties for multiple companies. Mandatory respondent Bien Dong's rate jumped from $0.29/kg to $1.00/kg; NTSF went from $0.07/kg to $0.38/kg. Even more striking, this reversed the zero-duty conclusion from just a year earlier—six companies that had just received zero rates had them taken away within 12 months.
The Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) admitted that this outcome had plunged the entire industry into a more difficult situation.
Then there's shrimp. In March 2026, the U.S. Department of Commerce launched a new round of anti-dumping and countervailing duty administrative reviews on Asian shrimp products, with 299 Vietnamese companies placed on the investigation list. Adding to the trouble, the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) took full effect on January 1, 2026, requiring importers to provide a Certificate of Admissibility (COA). In February 2026, Vietnam's shrimp exports to the U.S. were just $16 million—a 61% year-over-year decline.
In Q1 2026, Vietnam's overall seafood exports to the U.S. fell over 10%, with the U.S. market share dropping from 23.5% to 18.3%.
The conclusion is clear: Vietnam has capacity, but it's being squeezed by U.S. tariffs and technical barriers at the same time. After July 24, 2026, Vietnamese tuna exports to the U.S. face duties of 18.5%–47.5%; frozen shrimp duties exceed 19% when Section 301, anti-dumping, and countervailing duties are stacked. Chinese companies face tariffs—but Vietnamese companies aren't any better off.
India's potential as an alternative in the food sector—especially spices and seafood—is frequently discussed.
But look at the U.S. Department of Commerce's final anti-dumping and countervailing duty ruling on Indian oleoresin capsicum on August 18, 2026: anti-dumping duties of 4.24%–5.78%, and countervailing duties of 18.67%–25.42%. And that's just for one product. Indian seafood (primarily frozen shrimp) exported $2.8 billion to the U.S. in FY2025, accounting for nearly 40% of India's agricultural exports to the U.S.—yet shrimp were not included in reciprocal tariff relief.
In the March 2026 Asian shrimp anti-dumping/countervailing duty administrative review, 394 Indian companies were placed on the list—the most of any country.
India's problem is: before its scale even took off, the tariff hammer came down first.
Moreover, U.S. scrutiny of India is tightening across the board—FSMA 204 traceability rules require full supply chain data within 24 hours, a huge test for Indian exporters' supply chain management capabilities. The compliance systems Chinese exporters have built over the past decade—Indian companies haven't developed them yet.
Looking at the broader picture of Chinese food exports to the U.S., some categories are growing at astonishing rates.
From January to April 2026, Gansu Xinong Food Technology Co., Ltd. exported $5.3 million worth of chili powder to the U.S.—a year-over-year increase of 627%.
That's a 6x surge.
Why? In November 2025, the U.S. lifted "reciprocal tariffs" on 237 product categories including chili powder, reducing export costs for China. Jiuquan Customs launched the "Gannong Waimao Tong" mini-program, allowing companies to check FDA regulatory requirements for spices with one click and complete compliance self-checks before the peak export season. Products meeting EU pesticide residue and food safety standards helped them gain international market recognition.
Another example: Guangdong preserved eggs (century eggs)—once considered a "dark cuisine" by Westerners—sold out at U.S. Costco locations. Kaiping Xuri Egg Products broke into mainstream channels like Costco through precise positioning, leveraging word-of-mouth from the Chinese diaspora to gradually break down perception barriers.
In 2025, Guangdong's food industry revenue exceeded RMB 900 billion ($125 billion), ranking among the top in the nation.
Chili powder up 627%; preserved eggs sold out—this isn't "Chinese manufacturing being replaced." This is "Chinese manufacturing upgrading."
Back to the original question: Can Vietnam and India replace China as U.S. food suppliers?
Short term: No. Long term: Partial replacement will continue, but China will not be "replaced."
Anti-dumping duties can come back anytime (the basa fish case—six zero-duty rates reversed within a year—is proof). Technical barriers like MMPA and FSMA 204 are tightening. And a large portion of Vietnam's intermediate goods and raw materials still come from China.
Anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations have already covered multiple products (oleoresin capsicum, shrimp reviews). India's compliance systems are far less mature than China's. Production capacity and stability have not yet reached "full-category, large-volume" supply capability.
Industrial clusters and export ecosystems built over decades—from raw materials to packaging to logistics, a complete closed loop. Compliance systems are far more mature than Southeast Asia and India—FDA standards, FSMA systems, export experience. Technology upgrading and branding are happening right now—chili powder up 627%, preserved eggs becoming a hit—all evidence.
The old logic was "buy from whoever's cheapest." The 2026 logic is "buy from whoever can supply reliably, compliantly, and in large volume."
Vietnam and India do have replacement potential in certain categories—cashews and passion fruit from Vietnam, spices from India. But on the dimension of "full-category, large-volume, stable supply," no one currently can replace China's position.
U.S. buyers spent eight years going in circles—and ended up coming right back.
